Saturday May 16
Opinion Poll encouraging but not surprising
I am not one to read too much into opinion polls but sometimes they can be useful in confirming your suspicions if nothing else. Yesterday's Irish Times opinion poll on the Euro-constituencies falls into that category of poll and is greatly encouraging for Sinn Féin and for my own campaign in Munster. Not only does it show Mary Lou McDonald on course to keep her seat in Dublin but also shows strong showings from all Sinn Féin candidates across the state.
In "South", which includes five of the six Munster counties, the Irish Times' number cruncher predicts that "the constituency will go down to the last count." There seems to be some surprise out there at this revelation but as somebody who has been campaigning across the province for weeks now I am not one bit surprised. Everybody knows about the anger and resentment towards the government but from my experience this is only part of the picture.
We are seeing an economic collapse that was unthinkable only a very short time ago. Jobs are disappearing at an unprecedented rate and it's ordinary working people and families who are feeling it. Naturally there is a huge deal of frustration and annoyance among the voters I am coming across. The sight of Fianna Fáil politicians linking the rejection of Lisbon to the economic crisis is sickening but again not surprising in the current climate. It is exactly the type of dishonesty and recklessness with the truth and our livelihoods that have us in this disastrous economic situation and which quite rightly leaves people raging at their arrogance and incompetence.
However, what I'm picking up on the doorsteps is something deeper than just anger; it is a desire for change. People are angry but equally they are looking for an alternative. Gerry Adams has spoken about the need to develop an alternative based around the forces of the Left. This opinion poll is more proof if needed of the vulnerability of the "two-party" system that has so stifled progress in Irish society.
This is potentially a time of great change and realignment in Irish politics. We need to capitalise on this mood by bringing our message directly to as many people across Ireland as possible over the next few weeks. We saw during the Lisbon referendum how a concerted and people-based campaign can empower people to challenge the status quo and the establishment parties, I think this poll shows how the upcoming local and EU elections can offer a similar opportunity to deliver a shock to the establishment. 12 per cent? "You ain't seen nothing yet!"